腐蚀管道剩余寿命的性能衰减模型研究

管道在长期的运行过程中，由于介质和土壤的腐蚀性，管材的微塑性变形、结构转变和渗氢等。不仅会使管道出现各种腐蚀损伤，而且还存在着老化效应和氢化作用，导致管材的脆变并改变材料的塑性，使机械性质参数发生衰退，从管材性能衰减和腐蚀损伤角度研究了管道的剩余寿命，提出了根据结构承载能力的极限值确定塑性变形时工作寿命的方法，为了确定剩余使用寿命，对剪切损伤率和屈服性能比等概念进行定义，在掌握管材金属剪切损害率和屈服性能比的时间特性基础上，建立了剩余寿命计算模型。并给出了算例。     

中国丝绸产业国际竞争力研究

采用显示性竞争优势指数法(CompetitiveAdvantage,CA),结合翔实的数据,对中国丝绸产业的国际竞争力进行较为全面的实证分析,分析结果表明中国的丝绸国际竞争力呈直线下降的趋势。笔者认为影响中国丝绸产业国际竞争力的主要因素为:(1)产品质量与世界先进水平仍然存在着较大的差距;(2)中国的茧丝绸管理体制不适应市场经济的要求,严重的阻碍了中国丝绸国际竞争力的发展;(3)行业法规迟迟不能出台,宏观调控能力乏力;(4)中国的品牌效应在中国仍然没有真正形成;等。笔者还进一步就提高中国丝绸产业的国际竞争力的提出自己的建议:(1)改革和理顺宏观管理体制;(2)加快茧丝绸行业法规制定,加强行业管理的权威性,加大宏观调控的力度;(3)加大中国的科技投入,争取实现各项关键技术的重大突破;(4)进一步巩固“东桑西移”产业布局调整的成果,加快促进产业升级和技术进步;(5)加大对丝绸产品的宣传力度,尽快开发中国的丝绸市场;(6)进一步宣传和实施中国的高档丝绸标志的品牌战略,提高中国丝绸品牌的知名度。     

用简易诊断法检查判断液压系统各元件的工作性能

故障的排除首先在于判断，目前基层维修网点大多数没有检测仪器和设备，出了故障乱拆乱卸，导致液压元件工作失灵，甚至整车液压系统瘫痪。拖拉机液压系统产生故障的主要原因是液压元件工作性能恶化引起的。为此，介绍了在没有检测仪器和设备的条件下，如何应用简易诊断法检查判断各液压元件的工作性能。     

Landscape and habitat factors affecting cabot's tragopan Tragopan caboti occurrence in habitat fragments.

Cabot's tragopan Tragopan caboti is an endemic and endangered pheasant of the lower montane forests of southeastern China. The typical habitats of the tragopan have been seriously fragmented because of forest management for timber production and farmland reclamation in recent years. The effects of the fragment size and isolation on the distribution of the cabot's tragopan were studied in Wuyanling Natural Reserve. Thirty one habitat fragments (2.5-48.5 ha) surrounded by non-habitat sapling coniferous forests, in an intensively managed forested landscape, were surveyed over four seasons for the occurrence of cabot's tragopan. Five of the 31 fragments were occupied in all four seasons and nine were not occupied. Both landscape and habitat factors affected the occurrence of cabot's tragopan, with landscape factors having the greatest effect. Large and less isolated habitat fragments containing a larger amount of the tree Daphniphyllum macropodum were occupied significantly more often than small, isolated fragments. The appearance of cabot's tragopan in the habitat fragments was best explained by the size of the fragments, the distance to the nearest suitable habitat and the amount of macropdous daphniphyllum trees. Our results could be used to improve the management of the forests where Cabot's tragopan occurs in southeastern China.     

超级居群：连接生境多样性和生物多样性之桥

在达尔文（1859）看来,新物种只有通过竞争或者自然选择的方式淘汰原有物种才能进入由其他物种占据的生境并成功定居下来。然而,新物种进入生境并成功定居还有另外一个途径,那就是由于超级居群能在全球尺度上改变整个地球环境,从而能在原有环境中创造出一些全新的微环境来,正是这些全新的微环境使新物种避开了和原有定居者的剧烈竞争,很容易地进入了一直由其他物种占据的生境中并成功地定居下来。换句话说,超级居群导致了全球环境的分化,导致了全球尺度上的生境多样性。同时,超级居群通过环境的异质化为新物种准备好了很多全新的微环境,新物种在全新的微环境中的成功定居实现了新物种和原有定居者的长期共存。而这种长期共存导致了整个生物圈的生物多样性的增加。超级居群是地球上很多新环境的创造者,是生境多样性和生物多样性之间的桥梁,据此就能很容易地解释新物种为什么不时能和原有定居者共存甚至依赖于原有定居者,从而导致二者间剧烈竞争缺失的现象。     

The influence of sampling scheme and interpolation method on the power to detect spatial effects of forest birds in Ontario (Canada)

Spatial ecology is becoming an increasingly important component of resource management, and the general monitoring of how human activities affect the distribution and abundance of wildlife. Yet most work on the reliability of sampling strategies is based on a non-spatial analysis of variance paradigm, and little work has been done assessing the power of alternative spatial methods for creating reliable maps of animal abundance. Such a map forms a critical response variable for multiple scale studies relating landscape structure to biotic function. The power to reconstruct patterns of distribution and abundance is influenced by sample placement strategy and density, the nature of spatial auto-correlation among points, and by the technique used to extrapolate points into an animal abundance map. Faced with uncertainty concerning the influence of these factors, we chose to first synthesize a model reference system of known properties and then evaluate the relative performance of alternative sampling and mapping procedures using it. We used published habitat associations of tree nesting boreal neo-tropical birds, a classified habitat map from the Manitou Lakes area of northwestern Ontario, and point count means and variances determined from field studies in boreal Canada to create 4 simulated models of avian abundance to function as reference maps. Four point sampling strategies were evaluated by 4 spatial mapping methods. We found mixed-cluster sampling to be an effective point sampling strategy, particularly when high habitat fragmentation was avoided by restricting samples to habitat patches >10 ha in size. We also found that of the 4 mapping methods, only stratified ordinary point kriging (OPK) was able to generate maps that reproduced an embedded landscape-scale spatial effect that reduced nesting bird abundance in areas of higher forest age-class fragmentation. Global OPK was effective only for detecting broader, regional-scale differences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of land ownership and landscape-level factors on rare-species richness in natural areas of southern Ontario,Canada

Surprisingly few studies have considered the extent to which the nature of the ownership of land is associated with differences in biodiversity. We analysed ownership and other landscape-level effects on rare-species richness for both globally- and regionally-rare biota (including birds, herpetofauna, butterflies, mammals, and plants) in 289 designated natural areas (NAs) in southern Ontario, Canada. Information about each NA −including area, number of plant communities, ownership status and details of species diversity were collected from published sources. Length of perimeter of NA, relative isolation, and an estimate of fragmentation were measured using image analysis and GIS techniques. NAs were in general relatively small, with mean area of 158 ha (median 85 ha, range from 0.9 to 1278 ha) for private NAs; public NAs had mean area of 132 ha (median 16 ha, range from 0.1 to 1481 ha). Mean number of plant communities was 4.6 (median 4, range 1- 13) at private NAs and 3.8 (median 3, range 1-16) at public NAs. Our results show that, of several landscape-level factors, area had the greatest effects on rare-species richness and other biotic indices. Effects of area were followed by effects of plant community diversity, however this was itself significantly affected by area and the extent of perimeter of the NA. Both these factors were followed by effects of ownership of the NA and by effects of isolation of the NA (represented by minimum distance to nearest NA and by number of NAs in 10 km radius). Other landscape- level factors did not appear to have overall significant effects. Variation in area accounted for 0.1% to 29% of variation in number of rare species, with lower values for globally-rare, than for regionally-rare taxa. For all biotic groups, public ownership of NAs was associated with significantly greater rare-species richness compared to private ownership, even after other factors such as area were controlled. For all globally-rare biota except butterflies, area of NA had greater effects on rare-species richness than did ownership. Richness of regionally- rare birds was more affected by plant community diversity than by area of NA. Number of recorded plant communities accounted from 2.1% of variation in number of globally-rare plant species to as high as 31% of variation in regionally-rare butterflies. The diversity of plant communities was itself influenced by total site area (accounting for 45% of variation), extent of elongation of the NA, and both external- and interior- edge perimeters. Public NAs had greatest numbers of rare biota and so should be a significant focus for conservation programs. Smaller, privately-owned patches of natural area dominate (by number and area) in this densely populated region and their significance should not be overlooked. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Population dynamics and habitat connectivity affecting the spatial spread of populations – a simulation study

In this paper we show how the spatialconfiguration of habitat quality affects the spatial spread of apopulation in a heterogeneous environment. Our main result is thatfor species with limited dispersal ability and a landscape withisolated habitats, stepping stone patches of habitat greatlyincrease the ability of species to disperse. Our results showthat increasing reproductive rate first enables and thenaccelerates spatial spread, whereas increasing the connectivity has aremarkable effect only in case of low reproductive rates. Theimportance of landscape structure varied according to thedemographic characteristics of the population. To show this wepresent a spatially explicit habitat model taking into accountpopulation dynamics and habitat connectivity. The population dynamicsare based on a matrix projection model and are calculated on eachcell of a regular lattice. The parameters of the Leslie matrix dependon habitat suitability as well as density. Dispersal between adjacentcells takes place either unrestricted or with higher probability inthe direction of a higher habitat quality (restricted dispersal).Connectivity is maintained by corridors and stepping stones ofoptimal habitat quality in our fragmented model landscape containinga mosaic of different habitat suitabilities. The cellular automatonmodel serves as a basis for investigating different combinations ofparameter values and spatial arrangements of cells with high and lowquality.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Landscape patterns as habitat predictors: building and testing models for cavity-nesting birds in the Uinta Mountains of Utah,USA

The ability to predict species occurrences quickly is often crucial for managers and conservation biologists with limited time and funds. We used measured associations with landscape patterns to build accurate predictive habitat models that were quickly and easily applied (i.e., required no additional data collection in the field to make predictions). We used classification trees (a nonparametric alternative to discriminant function analysis, logistic regression, and other generalized linear models) to model nesting habitat of red-naped sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus nuchalis), northern flickers (Colaptes auratus),tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), and mountain chickadees (Parus gambeli) in the Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah, USA. We then tested the predictive capability of the models with independent data collected in the field the following year. The models built for the northern flicker, red-naped sapsucker, and tree swallow were relatively accurate (84%, 80%, and 75% nests correctly classified,respectively)compared to the models for the mountain chickadee (50% nests correctly classified). All four models were more selective than a null model that predicted habitat based solely on a gross association with aspen forests. We conclude that associations with landscape patterns can be used to build relatively accurate, easy to use, predictive models for some species. Our results stress, however, that both selecting the proper scale at which to assess landscape associations and empirically testing the models derived from those associations are crucial for building useful predictive models. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Quantifying patch distribution at multiple spatial scales: Applications to wildlife-habitat models

Multiscale analyses are widely employed for wildlife-habitat studies. In most cases, however, each scale is considered discrete and little emphasis is placed on incorporating or measuring the responses of wildlife to resources across multiple scales. We modeled the responses of three Arctic wildlife species to vegetative resources distributed at two spatial scales: patches and collections of patches aggregated across a regional area. We defined a patch as a single or homogeneous collection of pixels representing 1 of 10 unique vegetation types. We employed a spatial pattern technique, three-term local quadrat variance, to quantify the distribution of patches at a larger regional scale. We used the distance at which the variance for each of 10 vegetation types peaked to define a moving window for calculating the density of patches. When measures of vegetation patch and density were applied to resource selection functions, the most parsimonious models for wolves and grizzly bears included covariates recorded at both scales. Seasonal resource selection by caribou was best described using a model consisting of only regional scale covariates. Our results suggest that for some species and environments simple patch-scale models may not capture the full range of spatial variation in resources to which wildlife may respond. For mobile animals that range across heterogeneous areas we recommend selection models that integrate resources occurring at a number of spatial scales. Patch density is a simple technique for representing such higher-order spatial patterns.